Redesigning

San Francisco

with

Fare Free Muni











muniforpublic™

muniforpublic™

muniforpublic™

muniforpublic™

The Cliff
Why the status quo collapses by 2026
The Illusion
Why fares can't fix the deficit
The Math
What fare-free actually costs ($42M)
The Path
Four ways to fund it without your taxes
Evidence
The case studies
Minerva University
SFMTA
Minerva University
SFMTA
Minerva University
SFMTA
S01 - The Fiscal Cliff
$320M
Budget gap by 2026
Muni Fiscal Health - 2019-2027Federal relief masked the cliff.
2019
Pre-pandemic baseline. Structural deficit forming.
2020-22
$2.1B federal aid enters. The cliff is hidden.
2022
Relief expires. Gap reappears - deeper than before.
2026
Deficit hits $214M. No safety net remains.
+$200M$0-$200M2019202020212022202420262027CLIFF
$214M
Projected Muni deficit - 2026
$0
Federal relief remaining after 2025
$214M Muni + $514M other city shortfalls =
$728M$728M
The city's General Fund is absorbing a $728M citywide shortfall over the next two years. Muni cannot wait for a rescue that is not coming. Federal emergency aid is gone. The status quo leads to service cuts by 2026.
muniforpublic(tm) - S01
S02 — ENFORCEMENT
Enforce harder?
We ran the numbers.
Perfect enforcement would not close 5% of the deficit.
STEP 01
What enforcement looks like today
Violations caught 8% of the time

Fare inspectors board buses and check Clipper cards. At current staffing levels, they catch roughly 8 in every 100 fare evaders.

STEP 02
What maximum enforcement looks like
Double the inspectors → 30% drop in evasion

Even if SFMTA doubled its inspector workforce — a significant expense — evasion would fall by about 30%. Violations would still go undetected 70% of the time.

STEP 03
What that saves
~$4M recovered

A 30% reduction in evasion on a system recovering $79.5M in fare revenue would recover roughly $4M more per year. The inspector hiring costs more than that.

STEP 04
The real number: what fares cost to collect
$37.3M/year in collection costs
Fare inspector labor$21.0M
Fare equipment & system O&M$13.3M
Back-office & enforcement$3.0M
TOTAL$37.3M

The fare system costs $37.3M per year to operate. It brings in $79.5M. The net contribution — after stripping out collection costs — is $42.2M. That is 3.2% of SFMTA's $1.3B operating budget.

"The enforcement path leads nowhere.
The only question is what replaces it."

S03 — THE ILLUSION OF THE FARE
Perfect enforcement
wouldn't close the deficit.

Fares cover 8% of operating costs. The other 92% comes from parking fees, city taxes, and state funds.

Fares aren't revenue strategy.

They're friction.

SFMTA Revenue Split
8%
Fares
34%
Taxes
28%
State/Fed
30%
Parking & Other
THE MATH
What fares cost to collect$37.3M / year
Fare inspectors — $21M
Equipment & tech — $13.3M
Overhead — $3M
What fares actually bring in (net)$42.2M / year

The gap fares need to fill: $42M. That's 3% of SFMTA's operating budget.

Doubling fare inspections reduces evasion by 30% — but violations are still only caught 8% of the time. High cost, low yield, ongoing conflict.

5 OWL14 OWL38 OWL91 OWLN OWL
THE SUNSETEXCELSIORCHINATOWNBAYVIEWMISSIONRICHMOND
ACT I — THE NETWORK
80+ routes.
24-hour coverage
on key lines.
This is what San Francisco's transit network looks like today. Every glowing line is a route. Every route is a lifeline.
Current annual cost to maintain: $1.3B
Annual shortfall by 2026: $320M
SCROLL
ACT II — THE CUTS
The city doesn't
disappear all at once.
Lower-utilized routes go first. The math is simple. The geography is not random.
OUTER NEIGHBORHOODSCUT FIRST
MOST WALKABLE, WEALTHIEST AREASCUT LAST
Watch the Sunset dim. Watch the Excelsior go dark. These are not abstract budget lines — they are the buses people wait for in the rain.
CUT SEQUENCE
28 — 19th Ave
29 Excelsior
L Taraval
44 O'Shaughnessy
5 Fulton
T Third Street
N Judah
14 Mission
38 Geary
22 Fillmore
ACT III — 9:00 PM
YOUR CITY
DISAPPEARS.
9:01 PM
A black overlay sweeps the map. Not gradual. Sudden. Like a power cut. Because that's what it feels like to be stranded — it doesn't dim, it just stops.
After 9 PM, only the 5 Owl buses remain. Five glowing dots in the darkness. For a city of 870,000 people.
ACT IV — THE HUMAN TOLL
ACT V — THE RIPPLE
The root
cause
gets worse.
Service cuts don't just hurt riders. They suppress downtown recovery — the very tax base Muni depends on.
BUS FREQUENCY — ROUTE 38 GEARY
TODAYEVERY 10 MIN
AFTER CUTSEVERY 20 MIN
$90M
projected service cut value — "significant negative impact on the city's economy"
— SF Controller's Office
Downtown recovery suppressed. Tax revenues fall further. The deficit grows. The cuts deepen. The city contracts from the outside in.

Fare-free Muni is not a symbolic revenue giveaway but a deliberate governance upgrade –retiring a low-yield, high-friction fare system and replacing it with a simpler, equity-aligned operating model supported by a diversified and politically durable funding package. 

Fare-free Muni is not a symbolic revenue giveaway but a deliberate governance upgrade –retiring a low-yield, high-friction fare system and replacing it with a simpler, equity-aligned operating model supported by a diversified and politically durable funding package. 

S03 — What Free Muni Feels Like
Four scenes from a different city.
Scroll to scrub through each scenario.
S01 — Free Muni1 / 4
Boarding without fumbling
No fare card. No tap. Just walk on. Watch what happens when the friction disappears.
S02 — Free Muni2 / 4
A city that moves together
When cost isn't the question, the whole city becomes accessible — from any neighborhood.
S03 — Free Muni3 / 4
Free to explore
Students, seniors, workers — all riding without a second thought about money.
S04 — Free Muni4 / 4
Less cars. More city.
Fewer cars on the road. Cleaner air. Faster buses. The system rewards itself.
S07 — WHO THIS IS ACTUALLY FOR
Who This Is
Actually For.
👩🏻‍🔧
Maria, 58Bayview

Works 2 jobs. Spends $1,200/year on Muni passes.

→Freed budget: groceries, medication, savings
→No more fare anxiety before every commute
→Equal access to all 80+ routes
🧑🏿‍🎓
Dante, 19Excelsior

Community college student, no car.

→Rides without checking his balance
→Can take the bus to internships in SoMa
→$1,200/year stays in his pocket
👩🏽‍⚕️
Priya, 34Richmond

Essential worker, 5am shifts.

→Owl routes are her only option after 9pm
→Free Muni means she never misses a shift
→No fare card to lose or reload

Fares don't hurt everyone equally. Removing them doesn't help everyone equally either. That's the point.

S04

How We
Pay For It

Free Muni isn't funded by one hero. It's funded like infrastructure: diversified, resilient, politically durable.

Net operating gap: ~$42M / year
That number already accounts for savings from fare collection and enforcement systems.
01
Corporate Mobility Fee
Who pays
Large SF employers, per employee (above a size threshold)
Why fair
Businesses benefit from workforce access, reliability, and reduced parking demand
Estimated potential
$20–50M / yr
Political difficulty
Medium
learn more →
02
Tourism Revenue
Who pays
Visitors (hotel add-on + visitor mobility pass)
Why fair
Captures willingness-to-pay without reburdening residents
Visitor adoption rate10%
$50M/ year estimated
Example scenario: 10% of 25M visitors × $20.
Estimated potential
$10–50M / yr
Political difficulty
Low–Medium
learn more →
03
State + Federal Grants
Who pays
Time-bound demonstration funding (FTA / CA equity programs)
Why fair
Matches transit equity + climate goals; tied to measurable outcomes
Estimated potential
$5–20M / yr
Political difficulty
Low
learn more →
04
Congestion Pricing Linkage
Who pays
Cars entering downtown (earmarked for transit)
Why fair
Reduces traffic + funds mobility — two birds
Estimated potential
$10–30M+ / yr
Political difficulty
High
learn more →
No single source has to carry this.

A mix of business fees, visitor value capture, and grants can close ~$42M without raising your taxes.

This is a funding redesign — not a fare debate.
S06 — PRECEDENT
Cities That
Did It First.
Kansas City, MO
2020
+31% ridership

First major US city to go fare-free on all buses. Gap filled with local city allocation.

Boston, MAPilot
2022
+38% ridership on 3 pilot routes

Faster boarding, no fare conflict incidents. Pilot expanded after results.

Washington D.C.
2023
Ridership up citywide

$32M/yr city allocation. DC Circulator now free. No service cuts needed.

Luxembourg
2020
Nation-wide

First country to make all transit free. Equity gains across income groups. Funded through national budget reallocation.

San Francisco's net gap is $42M. Kansas City closed an $8M gap. Boston piloted for under $10M. This is not speculative — it's a playbook.

Y

o

u

r

T

h

o

u

g

h

t

s

M

a

t

t

e

r

Show your approval